You are here: Home Seminar 2020/21 Winter Term ONLINE – Applied Micro Workshop – Aurélien Baillon, “Follow the money, not the majority: Incentivizing and aggregating expert opinions with Bayesian markets”

ONLINE – Applied Micro Workshop – Aurélien Baillon, “Follow the money, not the majority: Incentivizing and aggregating expert opinions with Bayesian markets”

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Aurélien Baillon: “Follow the money, not the majority: Incentivizing and aggregating expert opinions with Bayesian markets” For some questions, such as what the best policy to address a problem is, it is uncertain if the answer will ever be known. Asking experts yields two practical problems: how can their truth-telling be incentivized if the correct answer is unknowable? And if experts disagree, who should be trusted? This paper solves both problems simultaneously. Experts decide whether to endorse a statement and trade an asset whose value depends on the endorsement rate. The respective payoffs of buyers and sellers indicate whom to trust. We demonstrate theoretically and illustrate empirically that “following the money” outperforms selecting the majority opinion.

Event details
What
  • Presentation
When Dec 01, 2020
from 16:00 to 17:30
Where Zoom URL TBA via mailing list
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